What to expect when you’re expecting
the Boston Celtics
But first…
Game seven.
Cleveland 106. Orlando 94.
Wow.
Phew.
It’s this iteration of the Cavaliers’ first playoff series win, and Cleveland’s first without Lebron James since 1993.
It’s the biggest game-seven comeback since 1997. The Cavs were down 18 points in the second quarter.
It’s the second most points ever scored in games six and seven of a playoff series. Donovan Mitchell’s 89 are just one point behind Allen Iverson’s 2001 Eastern Conference Finals performance. Mitchell also was the most vocal and active as a leader as he’s been in Cleveland. Building Darius Garland up all game, and giving him a second chance at a corner three in the fourth, one that finally got him settled in and confident.
It’s the Cavs’ two young stars getting used to and finally thriving in the biggest moment of their careers. In game six, Darius Garland helped cough away a fourth quarter lead with turnovers, clanked shots, and missed block outs. And Evan Mobley managed three points and six rebounds in 34 minutes. Both looked like they were in the midst of another disappearing act in game seven until they erupted in the fourth quarter. Garland for a team-leading ten of his 12 points, and Mobley for seven of his 11. Evan also pulled down 16 rebounds and swatted five shots.
It’s the best Caris LeVert has looked in weeks. Getting some run as a lead ball handler with Darius Garland in foul trouble, Caris had 15 completely essential points, including 10 in the first half, when nobody else on the team save Mitchell, wanted anything to do with the ball, let alone a shot.
It’s the reason Sam Merrill is such a valuable break-glass-in-case-of-emergency player. He sparked the Cavs’ comeback by hitting Cleveland’s only two first-half threes, and urged the momentum along by drawing a charge.
It’s the Cavs once again discovering that they’re at their best–on offense too–when they defend like demons. Cleveland’s Isaac Okoro-led unit held Paolo Banchero to 4-15 shooting in the second half.
It’s the first game J.B. Bickerstaff will point to when he tries to keep his job this offseason. He was quick (finally) to pull Georges Niang. He got Sam Merrill on the floor just in the knick of time. He rode Max Strus and Isaac Okoro for the whole fourth quarter. Other than an emotional challenge in the second quarter, Bickerstaff made the right calls when it mattered most.
It’s Cleveland–to borrow a metaphor from last week–showing that they can be knocked down and get back up.
That one is particularly important, because now the Cavaliers head to Boston for the Eastern conference semifinals, and no matter the result of the series, the Celtics are almost certainly going to knock them down.
Here’s what you need to know about ahead of round two, which starts tonight.
Schedule:
Game 1: Cavaliers vs. Celtics, Tuesday, May 7 (7 p.m., TNT)
Game 2: Cavaliers vs. Celtics, Thursday, May 9 (7 p.m., ESPN)
Game 3: Celtics vs. Cavaliers, Saturday, May 11 (8:30 p.m., ABC)
Game 4: Celtics vs. Cavaliers, Monday, May 13 (7 p.m., TNT)
Game 5: Cavaliers vs. Celtics, Wednesday, May 15 (TBD, TNT)
Game 6: Celtics vs. Cavaliers, Friday, May 17 (TBD, ESPN)
Game 7: Cavaliers vs. Celtics, Sunday, May 19 (TBD, TBD)
What’s at stake for the Cavs?
The Orlando series felt truly do-or-die for this iteration of the Cavaliers franchise. That’s not necessarily the case in round two, but how the Cavs fare against Boston will still dramatically alter the team’s course moving forward. Because while the Cavs certainly exorcized their demons from last year’s playoffs and made a meaningful step forward as a team against the Magic, we didn’t actually learn that much about Cleveland from a roster construction standpoint.
Last year they got out-toughed and couldn’t hit a shot. This year they were much sturdier and more emotionally mature, and while they still mostly couldn’t hit a shot, they made enough when it really really really mattered.
In the Celtics, the Cavs will face a totally different kind of opponent than last year’s Knicks and this year’s Magic. Boston is a better overall team, first of all, but they're also equipped with the offensive boost to stay out of the muck in which New York, Orlando, and Cleveland thrive. How will the Cavs fare against a team throwing fireballs instead of rocks? Will Cleveland find a way to generate offense? Who is going to show up with confidence? Can the Cavs really compete with a team of Boston’s caliber? Are they at least poised to in the near future?
The answers to all of these questions will play a big role in the makeup of Cleveland’s locker room next fall, and whether or not Donovan Mitchell is a part of it.
Who are the Celtics?
Only the best team in basketball.
The 64-18 Celtics, a title favorite, are coming off a gentleman's sweep of the Miami heat. They won their first round games by 20-, 20-, 14-, and 34-point margins.
#1-seed Boston’s +11.7 net rating over the regular season is the third-best ever, behind just the 96-97 and 95-96 Bulls. They boasted the best offense AND the second-best defense in the NBA. They’re the league’s best fourth quarter team. The fourth best team in the clutch.
They don’t get to the paint or to the line like Orlando and they grab about as many rebounds, but that’s as far–perhaps further–as any serious comparison goes. They turn the ball over less than any team in the NBA. They shoot 42.5 threes per game, more than anyone else. They make a ridiculous 38.8% of them, the second-highest clip in the league.
These are shots generated by ball movement, for sure, something the Cavs can work to stymie. But Boston’s three point arsenal is full of pull ups too. After all, Boston’s star two-way wings Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum are 6’6 and 6’8 respectively. They can shoot over basically whoever they want. To a slightly lesser degree, so too can Boston’s 6’4 guard Derrick White. He’s an elite defender who’s also shooting 48% on the almost nine threes he’s taken each game in the playoffs. We’ll save the talk about Boston’s most unblockable shooter, 7’2 Kristaps Porzingis, because he’ll miss the series with a calf injury. But his replacement Al Horford, who there’s no way doesn’t get lip fillers, is a more-than-capable floor spacer.
As a team that shoots as much as the Celtics do, Boston’s lone Achilles heel is the rare night when the shots don’t fall, when they revert to zero-pass possessions and chucked clunkers.
But even on those nights, they’ll shoot better than Orlando did in the first round, and they won’t be nearly as wide-eyed. White, Tatum, Brown, and Horford are all playoff vets. That’s not to mention Jrue Holiday, Boston’s other 6’4 point guard. The staunch 14-year veteran has made a career by obliterating point guards’ hopes of getting past the three point line. Holiday is no slouch on offense either. That’s in part because he’s yet another +40% bomber, and also because for a man who walks and moves like he’s somehow permanently locked in defensive position, slouching would be impossible.
It kind of feels like that’s the case for Boston’s whole squad.
How do they matchup with the Cavs?
The Celtics beat the Cavs in their season series 2-1, but we shouldn’t make much of those injury-riddled matchups. Cleveland’s starting lineup hasn’t played a minute together this year against Boston.
The Celtics don’t have the hulking size of the Magic. But they’re still huge. They’ll have the benefit of height at every position but center, where 240-pound Al Horford will nonetheless have a size advantage over 215-pound Evan Mobley.
The Celtics give up a lot more threes than Orlando. Boston is 23rd in opponent three point attempts, allowing 36 per game, while the Magic were third, giving up 32. Boston also takes more threes than anyone, which is why individual defense is going to be so key in this series.
The Cavs don’t have the size to shoot over Boston, so they’ll need to generate open looks by getting into the paint and finding kickouts. But the Celtics have the perimeter defenders in Holiday, White, Brown, and Tatum to stymie Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell at the point of attack, meaning that, as they discovered against Orlando, Cleveland will need to play with pace and attack Boston’s defense before it has time to set up. If Cleveland’s backcourt is able to stay aggressive and beat their primary defenders, they’ll need to find their open teammates, who will need to make far more than the 28% of their three pointers than they did in round one.
And if I was Celtics coach Joe Mazzula, I wouldn’t even bother leaving shooters open by sending help defenders. As the Cavs showed in game six, they can score 66 points in the paint and still lose to an eroneous Magic squad.
The Celtics path to victory runs straighter and wider.
The Cavs won game 7 against Orlando in large part because Isaac Okoro and Max Strus decided that enough was enough, and they were going to shut down Paolo Banchero. By keeping Banchero in front of them, the Cavs didn’t need to send help defenders or scramble away from players on the perimeter. When Banchero did kick the ball out, Orlando bailed Cleveland out by missing shots that the Celtics won’t.
Boston has four capable drivers compared to Orlando’s one or two, and a roster full of shooters compared to Joe Ingles.
If the Cavs’ perimeter defenders are consistently beaten, and the hot-shooting Celtics get open looks, Cleveland is just about screwed.
And if the Cavs perimeter defense stays solid, but the Celtics have success shooting over the Cavs, they’re also just about screwed.
To win, Cleveland needs to beat elite perimeter defenders off the dribble to generate open looks, and make them. Or they could try to score 80 points in the paint. Then they need to force Boston into tough shots and hope they don’t go in. It’s not exactly the most confidence-inspiring formula.
What are some showdowns to watch?
Evan Mobley versus Jason Tatum.
The Celtics have too many good scoring options. For Cleveland to have a chance, Evan Mobley, who showed again and again against Orlando that he is an all-world defender, needs to turn the water off of Boston’s most reliable and preferred one.
Georges Niang versus TD Garden.
Seeing the man through Orlando’s eyes, my vision twisted by his horrendous play, it occurred to me that at his worst Georges Niang is nothing more than an irritant. I expect Niang to get another shot at making a shot against Boston, and Celtics fans are going to hate him. Especially if he can find his jumper and stay on the floor.
Tristan Thompson versus Al Horford.
Don’t actually pay too much attention to this matchup. Listing it here is just an excuse to remind everyone that TT has a 16-4 record against Horford in the postseason.
What questions linger ahead of the series?
How much does Donny have left in the tank?
Donovan Mitchell looked exhausted and hobbled after willing his team to victory in round one. Spida says the Cavs view themselves as contenders and that he’s here for much more than to get past the first round. But how much further can Mitchell drag the sled? Having some more consistent help might be a good start.
Which version of Darius Garland are we going to get?
In round one we saw confident and assertive Darius Garland score 17 points in the first quarter of game five. We saw him wrack up 21-5-5 in the first three quarters of game six. We also saw him go scoreless and listless in the fourth quarter of that game, and wait until the end of game seven to come back to life. The Cavs need a consistently confident point guard. Will they get him?
Can Derrick White keep this up?
White has been on an absolute tear, shooting almost 50% on nine threes a game in the first round. Alongside Tatum and Brown, he averaged over 20 points. If he stays rolling and the rest of the Celtics play even a little like they have all season, good luck.
What should we expect from Dean Wade and Jarrett Allen?
Jarrett Allen, who averaged 17 and 14 against Orlando, has missed the last three games with a bruised rib. Dean Wade, the Boston killer who’s one of the Cavs best defenders and most important depth pieces, has missed the last two months with a sprained knee. Wade appears to be targeting a return in games three or four of this series, and Allen is listed as questionable tonight. But word is JA is still struggling to lift his arms above his head, and that’s a problem when you’re a center in the NBA. If he and Wade make a surprising comeback it’d be a real boon to Cleveland, especially in the Porzingis-free paint. But I’m not counting on it.
Some random predictions?
The Celtics are going to win a game by more than 30 points.
Jarret Allen won’t play more than a game in the series, and if he does, he won’t do much.
Bold prediction alert!! The Cavs will steal game one. Boston has been off for almost a week while the Cavs are still locked in and ready to keep grinding. A hot start will be (barely) enough to scrape out a win tonight.
If you are over forty or watch the games with anyone who is, you’ll bicker or hear a lot of bickering about Tatum’s off arm. As well as being a legitimate MVP-caliber talent, he’s a master of the forearm shimmy, and excellent at carrying the basketball1.
Max Strus will hit five threes in a game.
Derrick White will hit six threes in a game.
Who’s going to win?
What matters to the Cavs long term isn’t ultimately who wins this series or in how many games. What matters is how Cleveland competes and looks in those contests. All playoff data–meaning stats but also everything else–is crucial for the front office to properly evaluate this group and see how it can be improved.
That’s why earning the chance to face Boston is so valuable for the organization, and it’s why I don’t feel toooo guilty saying that I think the Celtics are going to win this series in five games.
Nobody is picking the Cavs.
Here’s hoping that takes the pressure off of them, and that they can play with the freedom and ease they lacked in the first round. They’ll need to.
Cheers, and go Cavs.
Okay I’m a little salty about this too
CAVS IN 8!