The good, the bad, and the Mobley
Let’s try to make sense of the emotional rollercoaster that is playoff basketball
Of the many maxims about playoff basketball you’ve probably heard the last few months, one has felt particularly true.
After your team wins a playoff game it feels like they’re unbeatable. After you lose it feels like they’ll never win again.
It’s unclear if sportswriters are riding the playoff rollercoaster with us, or if they’re driving the darn thing.
Before Cleveland’s second round series against Boston, a matchup in which everyone seemed to write off the Cavs as an afterthought, Cleveland’s favorite national NBA reporter Brian Windhorst had this to say about Evan Mobley on ESPN Radio.
“He has all the tools to be an excellent offensive player and he’s not. He’s just not. And you can make excuses for him from now until the sun goes down, but he’s just not developed as an offensive player”
But after the Cavs ran away with game two, stealing home court advantage behind a career night from Cleveland’s young big, Windhorst offered this glowing outlook.
“If Evan Mobley plays like this, they can win a championship in the next three years. If he plays like this the rest of the series, baby, clear your June.”
Was it time for the Celtics to panic? Were they blowing it again?
On his podcast, Boston sports guy Bill Simmons sure thought so:
“If Mazzula can’t get to the finals with the number of breaks that this team got..this is one of the biggest chokes in Boston history. It is.”
I haven’t seen many pithy soundbites from Windhorst or Simmons since then. But considering Cleveland handed home court and then a 3-1 series lead back to Boston in a 106-93 game three and a 109-103 game four, you can be sure what little talk there is of the Cavs is once again about where Mitchell is getting traded and how Cleveland’s core can’t work together. Oh, and LeBron was sitting courtside for game four, so there’s plenty of conjecture about that, too.
The reality about this Cavs team and its future is, as always, far more nuanced.
So to help us keep our undeniably heavy heads somewhat level as we reflect on the series so far, let’s look at some of the good, some of the bad, and some of the other tidbits that for the sake of a punny subheading we’ll call “the Mobley.”
Cleveland’s three point shooting
The good
Unlike in the Orlando series, whenever the Celtics have threatened to pull completely beyond Cleveland’s reach, the Wine and Gold have responded, repeatedly burying shots to get the deficit back to 12, or 10, or sometimes even eight.
This team has fight, and they’ve generated enough good offense to hang around with arguably the best team in the NBA. The Cavs hoisted 48 three pointers in Monday’s loss. 17 of those were considered open, based on the distance of the nearest defender. Cleveland boasted a 118 offensive rating in the first half, after shooting 44% from deep.
The bad
Where the Cavs have shown incredible fight, refusing to go away, so too have they inexorably failed to arrive. When it’s time to take the lead or to cut it to a one possession game, the Cavs can’t hit the water with their canoe paddles. In the second half of game four, Cleveland was four for 23 from deep. That drop off is in part because Boston limited their turnovers and started playing much better defense, but the Cavs also shot 17.6% on the 17 “open” shots they created in the game. For the playoffs, the Cavs are shooting 26.5% on those looks, the worst mark of all 16 postseason teams.
The Mobley
It’s hard to know what to make of Cleveland’s offensive woes. On one hand, they truly can’t score. They’re shooting the worst three point percentage of any remaining playoff team by a full five percent, and the 30% of three pointers they’ve converted in the postseason is a long trudge down several switchbacks from the 36.7% they drilled during the year. Have the Cavs been baited by opposing defenses into taking shots they shouldn’t? Is Cleveland’s confidence too fickle? Is it just a crazy statistical anomaly that Darius Garland is the only player in Cleveland whose shooting percentages haven’t fallen off of a cliff? I genuinely don’t know.
Donovan Mitchell
The good
If there were any doubts before the postseason about Donovan Mitchell’s status as a superstar and a playoff weapon–and after two consecutive first round flameouts, there were–Spida has thoroughly erased them. Mitchell, playing on a hobbled knee, has been a certifiable stud. It may be a Thaddeus-Young-level cherry pick, but as Cleveland.com’s Chris Fedor reported, Mitchell is the only player over a five game playoff span to ever score 180+ points and 20+ made threes while making more than half of his shots. He’s now done it twice.
The bad
After playing on an ailing knee all postseason, Mitchell strained his calf in game three. I think it’s fair to wonder whether compensating for one injury led to the other, but either way, Mitchell is listed as day-to-day, and you don’t mess around with calf injuries. It’s unlikely he plays tonight, and many are wondering if Mitchell has already played his last game as a Cavalier. Spida is rightfully exhausted, and while he hasn’t shown it, he has the right to be frustrated with his teammates too. We haven’t seen so much standing and watching in the fourth quarter since LeBron was in town.
The Mobley
Arguing that the Cavs are better without Mitchell, an MVP candidate when he’s healthy, is ridiculous. But with each Boston rebound and Derrick White paint back down, the case that the Cavs can’t consistently overcome their backcourt size deficit–especially without Jarrett Allen–grows stronger. So it’s a good thing Darius Garland showed up like he did on Monday. Garland’s 30 points and seven assists were a reminder of the All-Star talent lurking under his bad back and fifteen-pounds-lighter-than-before-his-broken-jaw frame. Cleveland’s better-than-anyone-expected effort against a title-contending talent in Boston was a reminder to any Cavaliers naysayer that this team is still young and growing.
Attacking the paint
The good
In game four, Cleveland outscored Boston 42 to 38 in the paint. They drove the ball 45 times to Boston’s 34.
The bad
Boston shot 24 free throws. The Cavs shot seven. Two of those were technicals.
The Mobley
It’s easy to get frustrated with the officiating–and the Cavs did–especially when Jason Tatum’s off arm is out there like a chicken with its head cut off. But the reality is that NBA officials reward offensive players who generate contact, and where Paolo Banchero and Jason Tatum and Jaylen Brown bulldoze and burrow into the paint, the Cavs for the most part slip into it, they hope, unnoticed. Are they being fouled more than they’re going to the free throw stripe? Absolutely. Were there some brutal calls and no calls in game four? Absolutely. Is it normal that contact of the kind the Cavs have generated goes unpunished? Also yes.
Isaac Okoro
The good
In the first two games of the series, Isaac racked up 23 points and made four of the nine threes he attempted. He shot with confidence and with a quick trigger, pulling from above the break and keeping Cleveland around in the first quarter of game one in particular.
The bad
In games three and four, however, Ice was two for 15 from the floor and oh for eight from deep. His confidence is in the gutter, which is sad for Isaac, who’d been having a career year, and hard for the Cavs, whose best perimeter defender has been unplayable.
The Mobley
Entering an offseason in which he’ll be a restricted free agent, perhaps Isaac has played his way back into Cleveland’s price range?
Evan Mobley
The good
Without their forceful interior scorer and defensive linchpin Jarrett Allen, the Cavs have desperately needed Mobley to shine in this series. While not without blemishes, he overwhelmingly has. Despite a bum ankle, the young big is averaging 18.5 points, 10 rebounds, and three assists on 63% shooting.
The bad
6’4 Jrue Holiday has absolutely bullied Evan Mobley in the paint.
To be fair, he does that to most professional basketball players.
The Mobley
The long term vision for Mobley is to play center. It’s the position from which his perimeter scoring abilities–still loading–will most effectively bend defenses and the threat of the massive retaliation of his arms will provide nuclear deterence in the paint, all while making room for a mobile shooter with size to play next to him as a Platonic ideal power forward. While the results have been varied on offense and Mobley clearly needs to add weight to hold up as a full-time five, he’s shown he can anchor a defense, and a good one too. After a feel out game one, Cleveland has held the high-powered Celtics offense to 94-, 106-, and 109-point showings.
Cleveland’s chances tonight
The good
The Celtics are a .500 home playoff team, and if there’s ever been an elite squad to saunter their way into a closeout game, it’s this Boston team. Plus, Dean Wade, who’s been a positive +/- the last two games, is back. You never know. Plus, Craig Porter Jr. got upgraded from out to doubtful, so there’s that.
The bad
The Celtics already snoozed their way through a must-win game four, and the Cavs couldn’t make them pay for it. Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen are likely out, as is Caris LeVert, whose knee was clearly bothering him big time on Monday. Already outgunned, it’s tough to see how the Cavs can match Boston’s talent without three of their top six players.
The Mobley
If the Cavs are ever going to contend, Darius Garland needs to figure out how to be consistently aggressive alongside another star or two. While he and Mitchell played well together last year, Garland has been assertive only in spurts during this postseason, and those spurts have too frequently come with Mitchell on the bench (or the exercise bike). It’s something DG needs to do some soul searching about this summer. But tonight, the job is clear. Go for forty.
Here’s hoping he does, and that, whether it’s into game six or a potentially monumental offseason, the Wine and Gold can walk off the floor tonight us with their heads held high.
Cheers, and go Cavs.