A Cleveland playoff primer
Everything you need to know before the Cavs take on the Magic
The postseason is here. It’s go time for the Cavaliers.
After an occasionally joyous but more frequently frustrating 48-34 campaign, the Basketball Gods (who Cleveland may or may not have insulted last weekend) have wiped the slate clean.
But it won’t stay that way for long.
Come Saturday evening, after the Cavs open their first round playoff series against the Orlando Magic, it’ll bear the first scratches–and bumps, bruises, and gashes–of a new story. Whether that tale is of a former MVP candidate once again disappointing when it matters, a coach scribbling incoherently on his whiteboard, a core imploding, or of a team redeeming itself and calcifying into an unstoppable force remains to be seen.
But one thing is for sure: whatever happens in this series will impact the Cavaliers for years to come. So we’d best pay close attention.
Knowing what to expect certainly helps. So to that end, here’s everything you need to know and then some (it’s a beast) about Cleveland’s first round matchup with the Magic.
Schedule:
Game 1: Magic vs. Cavaliers; Saturday, April 20 (1 ET, ESPN)
Game 2: Magic vs. Cavaliers; Monday, April 22 (7 ET, NBA TV)
Game 3: Cavaliers vs. Magic; Thursday, April 25 (7 ET, NBA TV)
Game 4: Cavaliers vs. Magic; Saturday, April 27 (1 ET, TNT)
Game 5: Magic vs. Cavaliers; Tuesday, April 30 (TBD, TBD)*
Game 6: Cavaliers vs. Magic; Friday, May 3 (TBD, TBD)*
Game 7: Magic vs. Cavaliers; Sunday, May 5 (TBD, TBD)*
What’s at stake for the Cavs?
Pretty much everything Cleveland has painstakingly built since LeBron James left in 2018.
The Cavs front office needs to prove to ownership that it’s built a core that can meaningfully contend for a title, Darius Garland that his All-Star selection two years ago was no aberration, Evan Mobley that he’s still growing into a franchise centerpiece, J.B. Bickerstaff that he can effectively coach his way through a postseason, and Jarrett Allen, after famously admitting last spring that the playoff lights were too bright, that his eyes are adjusted enough for the big time. He recently told reporters, “After the eclipse, we kept staring into the sun so nothing can be as bright. We’ll be alright.”
Cleveland also needs to show Donovan Mitchell that his best shot at competing for an NBA championship is in the Wine and Gold. Mitchell, on the other hand, after disappointing in consecutive postseasons, is desperate to reaffirm that he’s the elite playoff talent he showed in the COVID bubble, and deserves to be recognized as one of the NBA’s true stars.
If the Cavs can rediscover their mid-winter form, this series could vault them from an afterthought into a playoff sleeper. If they fall apart in the first round once again, nobody’s job will be safe.
No pressure.
Who are the Magic?
You may have heard the Magic referred to as “Knicks lite.” Some people have even thrown around comparisons to last year’s Cavs. But I think the line between the young, selfless, hard-nosed, over-achieving, 47-35 Magic and the Darius Garland-led 2021-2022 Cavs is much straighter. Why? Because Orlando’s identity is built entirely around their defense, which is the third best in the league. And because the Magic are incredibly young. Only two of their players–Joe Ingles and Garry Harris–have ever won a playoff series. Only five have ever even been to the postseason.
Nothing illustrates that fundamental difference between Orlando and Cleveland like the mood in their respective locker rooms after clinching a playoff berth.
The Orlando Sentinal’s Mike Biancho described the scene following Orlando’s clinching win over the Bucks. “Afterward, the Magic rightfully and raucously celebrated in the locker room, gave coach Jamahl Mosley a soul-cleansing Gatorade shower and then reflected on how far this team has come since Mosley took over three years ago….'This team and this fan base should [celebrate],’ Mosley said. ‘The organization should — from ownership down to every person who put in the work for this group. They should celebrate and embrace this moment. I’m not going to say, ‘Hey, you’ve gotta get locked in for [Cleveland in] the first round of the playoffs.’ Right now everybody needs to enjoy this moment because they deserve it.’”
The Cavs, who went chasing playoff vets Max Strus, Georges Niang, and Tristan Thompson this offseason and brought in Marcus Morris Sr. during the year, were much more subdued after beating the Pacers to lock up a playoff spot.
Cleveland.com’s Chris Fedor wrote how, “Friday night wasn’t just any other matchup. It was the biggest game of the season–and Cleveland treated it that way…But afterward, it was the customary postgame wrap-up–a tame locker room scene that reaffirms how far this organization has come over the last few years and how high the bar has been raised….'That’s the bare minimum for us,’ Cavs star Donovan Mitchell said following the win. ‘It’s to be expected. No matter what situations are thrown at us – injuries, guys playing well, not playing well, in and out of the lineup – this is who we are. We’re a playoff team.’”
The Magic have just taken the next step as a team, and sit on the same stair as the Cavs in the climb to NBA contention. But where Orlando is thrilled by its success, Cleveland’s been languishing and is itching for more.
Yet Orlando is no fledgling group.
They’re huge. Their best player, Paolo Banchero, is a 6’10 first-time-All-Star freight train who this year became the youngest player ever to lead his team in scoring, rebounding, and assists. Franz Wagner is Orlando’s second fiddle, their small forward. He’s also 6’10. And while he’s drilling only 28% of his triples on one of the worst shooting teams in the league, Wagner is an intelligent cutter, active driver, and excellent finisher around the rim.
The Magic rebound by committee. They collect a higher percentage of available defensive boards than any other team in the league, but don’t have any elite individual rebounders. They’re in the middle of the pack on the offensive glass, are not a good team on the road (typical of a young squad), and while they’re a top-ten fourth-quarter team (+2.9 net rating), they are one of the league’s worst squads in the opening stanza, with a -3.7 net rating.
The Magic also get to the free throw line a lot—like 25 times a game a lot. But they don’t grift their way to the penalty stripe; they bulldoze their way to it.
Lots of teams take more three pointers than Orlando. Nobody takes more shots at the rim.
And if the bulldozer is the machine that best represents their offense, then Orlando’s third-ranked defense is best compared to a wrecking ball. They are fifth in the NBA in steals, second in opponent turnover percentage, and eighth in defelections. Their arms are everywhere: in your face, in every passing lane, in front of your floater attempt. They’re friskier than a TSA agent on their first day on the job.
Nobody personifies that wrecking ball like Jalen Suggs. You’ll get annoyed how frequently TV commentators will refer to Suggs’s past as a star football player, but it’s for a reason. The 6’5 point guard turned himself from the Magic’s crummiest shooter as a rookie into one of its best in this his third year, but he earns his keep and his minutes by being just so darn annoying to whoever he’s guarding. He lives to dive after loose balls. Him and everyone else on the team.
And if Suggs is the wrecking ball, then Jonathan Isaac is the crane with 10 foot arms that swings it. The 6’10 Isaac, who’s dealt with major injuries throughout his career, has played limited minutes this season. But when he’s on the floor, he’s a First Team All-Defense caliber player who’s been hitting shots. He started Orlando’s season finale, and should see a lot of playing time against Cleveland. Keep an eye on how Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley fare against Isaac.
The Magic also have the league’s second highest scoring bench, led by guard Cole Anthony, who plays like it’s 2004, the non-starting half of Johnathan Isaac or Wendell Carter Jr (rec specs!), Franz Wagner’s older and thicker brother Mo, playmaking, wise cracking lefty wing Joe Ingles, and a resurrected Markelle Fultz (who might be in the playoff rotation).
How do the Magic match up with the Cavs?
It’s going to be an ugly series.
Orlando’s offense is pretty one dimensional. Paolo Banchero runs everything. They depend on him and Franz Wagner to attack the paint for the majority of their scoring, and lack any elite shooters to open up the floor. This bodes well for the Cavs, who keep their opponents away from the rim better than all but eight other teams. With Jarett Allen and Evan Mobley looming, when players do attempt shots in the paint against Cleveland, they make them just 55% of the time. It’s the fifth lowest percentage allowed by any NBA defense. The Cavs will throw plenty of bodies at Orlando’s two young stars. If Banchero and Wagner’s teammates can reliably bail them out by making shots and demanding defensive attention, something they’ve done only inconsistently this season, the Magic have a solid shot at winning the series.
Cleveland’s offense similarly has a brutal test in Orlando. The Cavs are at their best when Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland can get into the paint. Orlando has the defenders to keep them out of it. But unlike the Magic’s young ball handlers, Mitchell and Garland have the painful memories of all of the traps, double teams, and coverages they faced last postseason. And despite Garland’s irritating nonchalance with the ball this year, DG and Mitchell are both significantly more prepared than their Orlando counterparts for the kind of focused defensive pressure they’ll face in the series.
Cleveland also has Max Stus, Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, Sam Merrill, and Isaac Okoro, who give the Cavs a bevy of shooters and secondary playmakers to take pressure off of Mitchell and Garland when they are stymied at the point of attack. Just as with the Magic, whether or not these guys hit enough shots to be an effective release valve for Cleveland’s ball handlers could be the deciding factor.
In fact, of the four times the Cavs and the Magic played this year, the Cavs won the two games in which they hit ten or more three pointers. They lost the two contests in which they didn’t.
The numbers indicate that over a seven-game series, Cleveland’s shooters getting it done is the more likely outcome. But anything can happen.
What are the individual showdowns to watch?
Donovan Mitchell v. Jalen Suggs
Donovan Mitchell needs to affirm that he’s the postseason leader for whom Cleveland traded away its whole draft cupboard. If he’s healthy, probably the biggest question mark of the series, he’ll do just that with balletic ball handling, Zoltar-esque defensive anticipation, surgical playmaking, and Mr. Miyagi-level balanced jump shooting.
Yes that’s two eighties movie references.
Jalen Suggs, who’ll be in Mitchell’s face the whole series, is a famous irritant whose two life goals are to make things as ugly as possible, and to prove everyone wrong. About what? Sometimes even he doesn’t know.
The stylistic contradiction should be a joy to watch, especially if Mitchell can cash a few jumpers early and keep Suggs on his heels.
Evan Mobley v. Paolo Banchero
With Banchero’s likely secondary defender Dean Wade out for the majority of the series, Mobley and the reigning Rookie of the Year will be going head to head a lot. Mobley is already one of the NBA’s hardest matchups. Watching the two forces meet on the floor will be a blast to watch in and of itself, and factoring in the significance of their showdown only adds to the allure.
Banchero is already one of the world’s best young players, and a superstar performance in his first playoffs will go a long way in establishing him among the league elite, and cap-space-filled Orlando as an emerging free agent destination. Will Paolo be a playoff killer?
Mobley, on the other hand, hasn’t yet shown the offensive firepower to be the franchise cornerstone Cleveland is hoping he’ll be, and he played poorly in last year’s playoffs. A dominant performance from Mobley could vault him back into the ranks of the league’s young stars and open Cleveland’s title window. Another disappointment, and the Cavs should probably start adjusting their expectations.
Georges Niang, Tristan Thomspon and Marcus Morris Sr. v. Mo Wagner and Jo Ingles
Cleveland brought in Niang, Thompson, and Morris this year for a variety of reasons. Playoff-seasoned experience, floor spacing, and veteran leadership are chief among them. So too is just being a little bit nasty. While bad boy Jarrett Allen has reared his head this year, in Cleveland’s vets he and the rest of the Cavaliers have a few guys to remind them to put a body on the floor every once in a while. And if they’re in foul trouble, they’ve got somebody to do it for them.
The Magic, on the other hand, earned the fifth seed in large part by being nasty top to bottom. First Team All-Trash Talk Joe Ingles and the elder Wagner, Mo, who plays exactly how he looks, set the tone.
How will they and the Cavs enforcers respond the first time Suggs decks Mitchell or Max Strus bodies Gary Harris?
What questions linger heading into the series?
How healthy is Donovan Mitchell, really?
Mitchell, who’s been dealing with tendonitis in his knee, hasn’t been himself since before the All-Star break, when he was averaging 13.1 drives per game. In limited action since then, Cleveland’s star guard has attacked the paint just 9.3 times per game on average.
But Mitchell says he’s finally 100%.
That’s probably not true. Nobody is really 100% heading into the playoffs. But he looked much more like his MVP-candidate self last week when he had 33 points, and 12 drives, versus Indiana. It’s a good sign for the Cavs, who ultimately will go as far as Spida takes them.
How much will the playoff environment affect the young Magic?
Don’t overlook the significance of playoff experience. Last year’s clobbering at the hands of the Knicks was a harsh-enough reminder of how much more difficult everything is in the postseason, from dribbling to rebounding to subbing in the right players at the right time to walking the day after a game.
The Cavs have that experience now. That plus the steady hands of NBA-Champion Thompson, fresh-off-a-finals-appearance Strus, winningest-player-of-the-decade-Niang, and senior-for-a-reason Marcus Morris Sr..
The Magic, on the other hand, have just 91 combined games of playoff testing across their roster. Being green, it’s up to the Cavs to hit Orlando in the mouth and show them–and the refs–how physical and intense the playoffs really are. The force of Cleveland’s first blow and the conviction of Orlando’s response, whether it’s with confidence or a whimper, will set the tone for the series.
Can Cleveland rediscover its defensive identity?
The Cavs finished the year with the seventh-best defense in the NBA. But that number is skewed by a defense that was second in the association before the All-Star break. Since then, Cleveland’s D has been worse than laughably-porous Atlanta’s: 25th in the league.
Still, the foundation is there, and its hopefully superficial crumbling over the last few months is likely the result of injuries and fatigue. As the Cavs approach full health and with everything on the line, can they once again become a swarming, suffocating force on the defensive end?
What are some random predictions?
(Just for fun! Don’t bet on these.)
Banchero will have a triple double. It’ll be an inefficient one, in a loss.
The Magic will torch the Cavs in at least one hot shooting game.
Mo Wagner won’t actually be much of a factor. Cleveland fans are terrified of the elder Wagner after he scored 22 against Cleveland while doing an Isaiah Hartenstein impression. But he’s only played around 15 minutes a night over the last 15 games, and other than a few skirmishes and a double technical or two, I think Jarrett Allen handles him in his limited time.
One game will see under 181 points. Two great defenses. One inconsistent offense. One bad one. Yep.
Darius Garland will put on a show. Orlando may play drop coverage against Garland, sagging defenders off of him on screens to keep him out of the paint, giving him room to shoot in the process. Darius will splash a few early to get his tail up for a series in which he’ll remind us all why he was an All-Star and is Cleveland’s highest-paid player. Manifesting this one hard, folks.
Who’s going to win?
Whoever wins the first game will win the series.
If Cleveland can teach the Magic a playoff lesson or two in tomorrow’s opener, I think the Cavs will find enough confidence and groove to take the series in five or six games.
If they fail to, or if Orlando really is tough and confident enough to swing back and steal game one, I don’t see how the Cavs recover.
Here’s hoping they’re not really that tough or confident after all, and that you enjoyed this playoff preview.
Cheers, and go Cavs.